Signal and Noise

A hidden smooth pattern + random wobble made these dots. Can the model find the pattern without copying the wobble?

Model flexibility (degree): 1 how hard the model tries

Noise: 0.35 size of the random wobble

Number of examples: 40 70% to learn from, 30% held back

Show the hidden truth Reveal new data

Boss: round 1 of 3 · wins 0

Set the flexibility using only the training dots, then press Lock my pick. Win = within 1 of the best degree on the hidden new dots.

Training dots (model learns from these) New dots (held back, never seen by the model) Model's curve Hidden truth

Error on training dots

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average miss distance, squared

Error on new dots

???

average miss distance, squared (tick "Reveal new data")

Error for every flexibility, on this dataset

Blue = training error, orange = new-data error. The vertical line is the current degree.